Larissa Jensen, executive director, Industry Analyst, NPD Beauty—and a member of Beauty Packaging’s Board of Advisors—anticipates a bright and cheery retail season for beauty this year.
 
She says, “If the momentum we have witnessed throughout this year continues into the last quarter, Holiday 2018 stands to be even bigger and better than last year. As brands and retailers continue to expand their beauty holiday offerings to encompass each category in a bigger way, all of beauty stands to reap the benefits.”
 
Skincare, specifically, should have a great holiday, as Jensen expects the strong growth seen all year to continue. Skincare sets tend to perform well during the holiday season, influenced by the generally promotional fourth quarter. She expects sales of skincare face masks and minis will be strong, as their low price-point and fun packaging encourages the add-on gift purchase.
 
In a similar fashion, mini or travel-sized makeup products have experienced double-digit gains throughout 2018, and Jensen anticipates this performance will spill over into Holiday. These products are highly giftable, given their price and fun holiday packaging. Additionally, given what we saw last holiday, she says party favorites such as false lashes and lip gloss/color are likely to have another great fourth quarter.
 
In fragrance, Jensen expects home scents will experience a solid holiday season. NPD’s Scentiments data shows that over 80% of consumers use home scents, so they make for great gifts – whether for oneself or others. Another driver for fragrance during this holiday will be new brands. With more than a third of full year fragrance sales happening in December, most fragrance manufacturers wait until the second half or last quarter of the year to introduce a new scent, according to Jensen. “The success of new launches during holiday can make or break the category, but given the robust performance seen so far in 2018, I anticipate fragrance will end the year very positively,” she says.
 
Jensen concludes: “As we step into another holiday season, one thing feels certain: 2018 will deliver solid growth for the U.S. prestige beauty industry once again.”